Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, and El Paso areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas.

A large area of light density smoke produced from widespread seasonal burning across the Central U.S was seen extending from Colorado to Indiana and from Minnesota towards Central Texas. Within this region, numerous light to potentially moderate density smoke plumes were observed. Light residual smoke from seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula is lingering over portions of South Texas, slightly elevating fine particulate levels in areas closer to the coast. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Southeast and Far West Texas associated with light winds is forecast to raise PM2.5 concentrations at times. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and El Paso areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston area.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, cool to mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range of the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

The seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula appear as if they will continue producing copious residual smoke and aerosols throughout the day tomorrow. Southerly winds could push increasing density smoke into the southernmost regions, but as it stands model guidance suggests the effects should remain mostly isolated to the southernmost areas. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Southeast and Far West Texas associated with light morning winds could periodically raise PM2.5 concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and El Paso areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Weak low pressure in northwest Texas will keep southerly winds pumping large amounts of moisture into the eastern two thirds of the state as dew points in the 60s become widespread. Residual smoke/aerosols from the burning and industrial activity that will likely be ongoing in southern Mexico and Central America could continue its northward movement but, models continue to suggest its effects on Texas will continue to be limited. South, Southwest, and possibly the coastal bend will be the most likely regions to see any sustained elevation in PM2.5 concentrations as relative humidity will also be maximized in these areas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds, stable atmospheric conditions, and fine particulate carryover from the previous day in Far West Texas could push the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQI into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas.

Increasing winds across much of the state will continue to pump moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico as higher density smoke advects out of Mexico, possibly reaching the North Central region by the early afternoon hours as smoke and aerosols spread farther west as well. Meanwhile, breezy to gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours in New Mexico and west Texas could kick up of areas of patchy blowing dust in both areas, but the density and duration are not expected to sustain elevated PM2.5 concentrations for an extended period of time. the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to top out in the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate to strong winds, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.